Tuesday, December 8, 2009

I am a Climate Sceptic !

I am not sure if I qualify as a climate sceptic. I am not a born again believer when it comes to popular notions of climate science and I am a natural sceptic in all things, so I suppose I am a climate sceptic. I will have to clarify however as it is never as simple as a news headline.

I don’t doubt people who tell us the climate has changed. I can see within in my lifetime how the weather patterns have shifted. I don’t doubt that humans are having a negative impact on our world and I am consuming more than my fair share. I don’t doubt the high probability that CO2 is the cause of the change in weather but a few things make me sceptical about the certainty of all this. They are mostly human things too. It all turns on humanity after all.?

The latter is the starting point. It all turns upon man. Are we really the centre of the universe? That is a religious perspective held by many and has a parallel in the popular discussion of climate science. That is after all what I am talking about; the popular science. I have no science degree to comment on anything deeper and surprisingly neither do many people who pronounce loudly on the issues.

Then there is a human propensity to believe people when they say the sky is falling. Again, it is a religious notion that there will be some kind of judgement day. Many of us can be made to feel guilty quite easily and if you’ve been a churchgoer then it is certainly part of the territory.

So all of the above just makes me edgy when politicians and other advocates begin pushing these same buttons on climate . One gets the feeling that a manipulation born of nothing more than belief and a desire to be popular is driving all kinds of leaders. Because they often know little of the science themselves they belittle any opposition with name calling and not a lot of evidence. It does not give one hope for a sensible outcome.

As someone who does walk deliberately in the Christian tradition, all be it a non-theist one, the response to caring for my descendants future may be similar to someone harping on about carbon footprints. But I would be careful about making religious statements and talking of catastrophic outcomes. Whatever happens I doubt the planet is threatened by our puny species and our end will not come as a catastrophe unless there is an equally unlikely worldwide nuclear war. What might happen is going to be gradual. We will learn more. If it is getting obviously worse because of humans we have the capacity as a species to change things rapidly. If it turns out not to get worse and/or climate change is, in due course, found to be influenced by factors outside of our control then a whole lot of trust will be smashed. Changes that we want for the good of humanity may be reversed by the powers that will come to the fore in that political meltdown. I have a bad sense that may be the catastrophe of this century.

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